eukleos
Who wins the Crown?
40 players, November 13 to 15. Thirteen Swiss games, then a checkmate final: reach 20 points, then win a game. These chances come from 20,000 simulations of the format, frozen on 2026-11-08 at commit bcf7d51 before a single game was played.
Favourite 1 
Dishsoap 5.6% to win, 35% to reach the final Favourite 2 
Bensac 5.4% to win, 34% to reach the final Favourite 3 
whyyoumadpro 4.4% to win, 29% to reach the final
Dishsoap 5.6% to win, 35% to reach the final Favourite 2 Bensac 5.4% to win, 34% to reach the final Favourite 3 whyyoumadpro 4.4% to win, 29% to reach the final A player picked at random would have a 2.5% chance. Even the favourite loses this tournament most of the time.
The whole field
#PlayerWinFinalDay 2Top 4 a gameAvg place
1 Dishsoap 5.6% 35% 88% 56% 4.20 2 Bensac 5.4% 34% 88% 55% 4.20 3 whyyoumadpro 4.4% 29% 86% 54% 4.29 4 
Yakumo 4.0% 28% 86% 53% 4.32 5 Chunington 3.7% 27% 85% 53% 4.33 6 
Skipaeus 3.7% 26% 84% 53% 4.34 7 
wasianiverson 3.6% 26% 84% 53% 4.36 8 Cambulee 3.5% 25% 84% 52% 4.39 9 
AQ1H 3.4% 25% 84% 52% 4.37 10 ZyK0o 3.3% 24% 83% 52% 4.38 11 
CSFX 3.3% 24% 83% 52% 4.40 12 
Maris 3.3% 25% 84% 52% 4.38 13 
WithoutYou 3.2% 24% 84% 52% 4.39 14 
seoill 3.1% 24% 84% 52% 4.39 15 Iron Bog 3.0% 24% 83% 52% 4.39 16 
Cynarr 2.9% 23% 83% 51% 4.42 17 Upsetmax 2.9% 24% 84% 52% 4.38 18 wigwugg 2.6% 21% 82% 51% 4.45 19 
title 2.4% 21% 81% 51% 4.46 20 
steppy 2.4% 20% 81% 50% 4.48 21 bopster 2.2% 19% 80% 50% 4.51 22 L3SCoco 2.1% 19% 80% 50% 4.51 23 Broseph 2.0% 19% 80% 50% 4.52 24 Hanxing 2.0% 17% 79% 49% 4.56 25 Milo 2.0% 18% 79% 49% 4.55 26 
JosueDeleted 2.0% 17% 78% 49% 4.56 27 pigpig 1.8% 17% 78% 49% 4.57 28 
ego 1.8% 16% 77% 48% 4.59 29 iCeEmperoz 1.7% 15% 77% 48% 4.61 30 diaomei 1.7% 16% 78% 49% 4.58 31 JazLatte 1.5% 15% 76% 48% 4.63 32 
oskuu 1.4% 14% 76% 47% 4.64 33 Ace 1.4% 14% 75% 48% 4.63 34 baizhi 1.0% 11% 72% 46% 4.74 35 TBD 1.0% 11% 72% 46% 4.74 36 Myyz 1.0% 11% 72% 46% 4.75 37 TBD 1.0% 11% 72% 45% 4.75 38 TBD 0.9% 11% 72% 46% 4.75 39 TBD 0.9% 11% 72% 46% 4.75 40 Rue 0.9% 11% 72% 46% 4.75 #PlayerWinFinalDay 2Top 4 a gameAvg place
1 Dishsoap 6.1% 37% 90% 56% 4.15 2 Bensac 5.5% 35% 89% 56% 4.18 3 Chunington 5.2% 32% 88% 55% 4.23 4 whyyoumadpro 4.2% 29% 86% 54% 4.29 5 Skipaeus 4.2% 30% 86% 54% 4.28 6 AQ1H 4.1% 29% 86% 54% 4.28 7 Upsetmax 3.8% 29% 86% 54% 4.30 8 Yakumo 3.6% 26% 85% 53% 4.34 9 seoill 3.5% 26% 84% 53% 4.36 10 WithoutYou 3.5% 26% 85% 53% 4.35 11 Cambulee 3.5% 26% 84% 52% 4.37 12 Iron Bog 3.4% 25% 84% 52% 4.38 13 wasianiverson 3.3% 25% 84% 52% 4.37 14 CSFX 3.3% 25% 84% 52% 4.37 15 Maris 3.1% 24% 84% 52% 4.39 16 ZyK0o 2.6% 21% 81% 51% 4.47 17 Hanxing 2.4% 19% 81% 50% 4.49 18 steppy 2.3% 19% 81% 50% 4.50 19 JosueDeleted 2.3% 18% 79% 49% 4.53 20 title 2.3% 19% 81% 50% 4.48 21 wigwugg 2.2% 20% 81% 50% 4.48 22 bopster 2.2% 19% 80% 50% 4.51 23 L3SCoco 2.1% 19% 79% 50% 4.52 24 Cynarr 2.1% 18% 79% 49% 4.54 25 diaomei 1.9% 17% 78% 49% 4.56 26 Milo 1.8% 18% 80% 49% 4.54 27 Broseph 1.7% 15% 78% 48% 4.59 28 iCeEmperoz 1.4% 14% 76% 48% 4.63 29 Ace 1.3% 14% 76% 47% 4.64 30 ego 1.3% 13% 75% 47% 4.66 31 JazLatte 1.2% 13% 75% 47% 4.68 32 pigpig 1.1% 13% 75% 47% 4.67 33 oskuu 1.1% 13% 75% 47% 4.67 34 Rue 1.1% 11% 72% 46% 4.75 35 baizhi 1.0% 11% 71% 45% 4.76 36 TBD 0.9% 11% 72% 46% 4.74 37 Myyz 0.9% 11% 72% 46% 4.75 38 TBD 0.9% 11% 72% 45% 4.75 39 TBD 0.9% 10% 71% 45% 4.75 40 TBD 0.9% 11% 72% 46% 4.75 #PlayerWinFinalDay 2Top 4 a gameAvg place
1 Dishsoap 5.1% 32% 87% 55% 4.25 2 Bensac 4.9% 31% 87% 55% 4.25 3 Upsetmax 4.6% 30% 87% 54% 4.28 4 whyyoumadpro 4.0% 29% 86% 54% 4.30 5 Skipaeus 3.9% 27% 85% 53% 4.32 6 Chunington 3.7% 26% 85% 53% 4.35 7 Cambulee 3.6% 25% 85% 52% 4.37 8 Yakumo 3.3% 26% 84% 53% 4.36 9 ZyK0o 3.3% 25% 83% 52% 4.39 10 wasianiverson 3.3% 24% 84% 52% 4.39 11 WithoutYou 3.2% 24% 84% 52% 4.39 12 wigwugg 3.1% 23% 83% 51% 4.42 13 AQ1H 3.1% 24% 83% 52% 4.39 14 Cynarr 3.1% 23% 83% 52% 4.40 15 Maris 3.0% 23% 83% 51% 4.42 16 seoill 2.9% 23% 83% 52% 4.41 17 Iron Bog 2.9% 23% 83% 52% 4.41 18 CSFX 2.7% 21% 82% 51% 4.45 19 title 2.6% 21% 81% 51% 4.45 20 L3SCoco 2.5% 21% 81% 51% 4.47 21 steppy 2.5% 21% 81% 51% 4.47 22 Broseph 2.4% 21% 81% 50% 4.49 23 Hanxing 2.2% 19% 80% 50% 4.52 24 JosueDeleted 2.1% 20% 80% 50% 4.50 25 Milo 2.1% 19% 80% 50% 4.52 26 ego 2.1% 18% 79% 49% 4.54 27 JazLatte 1.8% 16% 78% 48% 4.59 28 bopster 1.8% 18% 79% 49% 4.54 29 diaomei 1.8% 16% 78% 49% 4.57 30 pigpig 1.8% 16% 78% 49% 4.56 31 oskuu 1.4% 16% 77% 48% 4.60 32 Ace 1.4% 14% 75% 47% 4.64 33 iCeEmperoz 1.4% 14% 75% 47% 4.65 34 Myyz 1.0% 10% 72% 45% 4.77 35 Rue 0.9% 10% 71% 45% 4.77 36 TBD 0.9% 10% 71% 45% 4.77 37 TBD 0.9% 10% 72% 45% 4.76 38 baizhi 0.9% 10% 72% 45% 4.77 39 TBD 0.9% 10% 71% 45% 4.77 40 TBD 0.8% 10% 71% 45% 4.76 Win, final and day 2 come from simulating the whole tournament. Top 4 a game and average place are for a single game against this field. Elo and OpenSkill were frozen alongside as baselines and will be scored the same way.